Tropical Storm BILL Advisory Mon Jun 14

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Tropical Depression Two Discussion Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL022021
1100 AM EDT Mon Jun 14 2021

Satellite and radar images show that the low pressure area that NHC
has been following since yesterday off the coast of North Carolina
has become better organized, with a small central dense overcast
over the center and more prominent banding features.  The low also
has advanced ahead of a nearby diffuse stationary front, with that
boundary lying northwest of the center.  Considering the small core
of the low, ample deep convection, satellite pattern, and that the
low is feeding off of the thunderstorm activity (and not the front)
-- it is now classified as a tropical depression.  The initial
intensity is set to 30 kt, which is our best estimate assuming
strengthening from the 20-25 kt overnight ASCAT and surface
observations.

The depression is moving northeastward at about 18 kt.  A large
mid-latitude trough digging across eastern North America should
cause the cyclone to continue moving generally northeastward, but
faster, over the next couple of days.  In about 48 hours, the system
is forecast to dissipate near Newfoundland as it is absorbed by a
larger extratropical low.  Model guidance is in very good agreement
on this scenario, and the NHC forecast lies near the track
consensus.

The depression has about 24 hours over marginally warm waters in
low-to-moderate shear to strengthen before it moves north of the
Gulf Stream and decays.  Almost all of the intensity guidance shows
the system becoming a tropical storm tonight, and considering the
healthy initial structure, the official forecast follows that
guidance.  The low should lose tropical characteristics in about 36
hours due to very cold waters and dissipate near Newfoundland in
about 2 days.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  14/1500Z 35.0N  73.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  15/0000Z 36.6N  70.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  15/1200Z 39.8N  65.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  16/0000Z 43.6N  59.7W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48H  16/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake