Tropical Storm SIMON Advisory Fri Oct 03

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TROPICAL STORM SIMON WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP192014
0300 UTC FRI OCT 03 2014

AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SIMON WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 18.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 108.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H.

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME

WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
        00Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.


  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -

               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM
  TIME       00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO
             12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED

FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION       KT

P ABREOJOS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)  10(15)   1(16)

CABO SAN LUCAS 34  1   2( 3)   1( 4)   2( 6)   3( 9)   2(11)   X(11)

SAN JOSE CABO  34  X   2( 2)   1( 3)   2( 5)   2( 7)   2( 9)   X( 9)

LA PAZ         34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   4( 6)   3( 9)   X( 9)

LORETO         34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   5( 7)   1( 8)

BAHIA KINO     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)

GUAYMAS        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)

HUATABAMPO     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)

CULIACAN       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)

ISLA SOCORRO   34 12  80(92)   1(93)   X(93)   X(93)   X(93)   X(93)
ISLA SOCORRO   50  X  64(64)   4(68)   X(68)   X(68)   X(68)   X(68)
ISLA SOCORRO   64  X  25(25)   1(26)   X(26)   X(26)   X(26)   X(26)

ISLA CLARION   34  1   2( 3)  22(25)  14(39)   4(43)   1(44)   X(44)
ISLA CLARION   50  X   X( X)   4( 4)   7(11)   X(11)   1(12)   X(12)
ISLA CLARION   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

$$
FORECASTER AVILA
FORECASTER AVILA