MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 22W (AERE) WARNING NR 11// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 22W (AERE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 139 NM EAST- SOUTHEAST OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED, QUASI-STATIONARY LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE LLCC. A 07/2245Z WINDSAT 37GHZ IMAGE REVEALS A COMPACT CORE OF CONVECTION WITH A MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE AND THE BULK OF CONVECTIVE BANDING LOCATED OVER THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. THIS IMAGERY SUPPORTS THE CURRENT POSITION WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 50 KNOTS BASED ON THE RECENT WEAKENING TREND, WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH THE DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 55 TO 65 KNOTS AND A RECENT SATCON ESTIMATE OF 48 KNOTS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS A MARGINALLY-FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW, SOUTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OFFSET BY GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM SST. TS 22W HAS TRACKED QUASI-STATIONARY DUE ITS POSITION WITHIN A WEAK, COMPETING STEERING ENVIRONMENT BETWEEN THE RECEDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST AND A BUILDING STR OVER CHINA. 3. FORECAST REASONING. A. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. B. TS 22W IS FORECAST TO REMAIN WITHIN A COMPETING STEERING ENVIRONMENT OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS, WHICH WILL PRODUCE A SLOW AND QUASI-STATIONARY MOTION. THE DOMINANT STEERING MECHANISM WILL SLOWLY TRANSITION TO THE STR BUILDING OVER CHINA NEAR TAU 36. DURING THIS TIME, LOW VWS AND SLOW TRACK SPEED OVER VERY WARM WATER WILL ALLOW ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION; TS 22W IS EXPECTED TO REACH PEAK INTENSITY BY TAU 24. AFTER TAU 24, THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT ENCOUNTERS INCREASING NORTHERLY VWS AND UPPER- LEVEL CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH BUILDING STR. C. AFTER TAU 72, TS 22W WILL ACCELERATE SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARD HAINAN ISLAND AS THE STR OVER SOUTHEAST CHINA BUILDS. THE INCREASED VWS AND UPPER-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE WILL LEAD TO A GRADUAL DECAY, WITH TS 22W DISSIPATING PRIOR TO LANDFALL OVER HAINAN BY TAU 120. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS WIDELY SPREAD DUE TO THE COMPLEX STEERING ENVIRONMENT AND HIGH UNCERTAINTY ASSOCIATED WITH THE QUASI- STATIONARY MOTION. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS PLACED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH LOW CONFIDENCE.// NNNN NNNN