MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 16W (FUNG-WONG) WARNING NR 19// RMKS// 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 16W (FUNG-WONG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 235 NM SOUTH OF SHANGHAI, CHINA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER HAS BECOME EXPOSED AS THE CENTRAL CONVECTION IS SHEARED NORTHEASTWARD. THE MSI LOOP ALSO SHOWS THE FEEDER BANDS ARE BEGINNING TO UNRAVEL AND BREAK UP. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE ON THE MSI LOOP AND ON RADAR FIXES FROM THE TAIWAN CENTRAL WEATHER BUREAU. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON CONGRUENT DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TS 16W HAS MOVED INTO AN AREA OF STRONG (25-30 KNOT) WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. HOWEVER, THE SAME STRONG WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE PREVAILING WESTERLIES IS PROVIDING POLEWARD VENTILATION TO THE WEAKENING CONVECTION. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST. 3. FORECAST REASONING. A. THE FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN ADJUSTED SIGNIFICANTLY EASTWARD FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. B. TS FUNG-WONG IS FORECAST TO TURN NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD THEN RECURVE SHARPLY NORTHEASTWARD AS THE STEERING STR IS WEAKENED BY THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. INCREASING VWS WILL GRADUALLY ERODE AND EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE THE SYSTEM BY TAU 48. CONCURRENTLY, TS 16W WILL UNDERGO EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION, BECOMING A WEAK COLD-CORE LOW IN THE YELLOW SEA BY END OF FORECAST. AVAILABLE NUMERIC GUIDANCE IS SPREAD APPROXIMATELY 30 DEGREES WITH GFNI ON THE LEFT AND HWFI ON THE RIGHT MARGINS OF THE ENVELOPE. THE JTWC FORECAST IS LAID JUST TO THE RIGHT OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE.// NNNN NNNN