MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 08W (NEOGURI) WARNING NR 25// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. TYPHOON 08W (NEOGURI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 242 NM SOUTHWEST OF SASEBO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN QUICKLY DISSIPATING OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE TRACK FOR TY 08W CONTINUES TO SHIFT MORE NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AS A DEEP MID-LATITUDE LOW CONTINUES TO PROGRESS EASTWARD, LEADING TO A SHIFT IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) STEERING THE SYSTEM. INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF TY 08W HAS BEEN THE PREDOMINANT FACTOR IN THE RECENT DECREASE IN DEEP CONVECTION. THE POSITIONING OF TY 08W HAS BECOME MORE DIFFICULT RECENTLY AS THE REMAINING DEEP CONVECTION HAS OBSCURED THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). POSITIONING FIXES FROM PGTW AND RJTD SUPPORT THE MSI POSITIONING. THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF 85 KNOTS IS BASED ON A CONSOLIDATION OF THE DVORAK FIXES FROM THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED AGENCIES. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) HAVE DECREASED BELOW FAVORABLE CRITERIA FOR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT AND ARE SUPPORTING THE WEAKENING TREND OBSERVED IN MSI. 3. FORECAST REASONING. A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. B. TY 08W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TURNING TOWARDS KYUSHU OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS WITH LANDFALL OCCURRING AROUND 21Z ON THE 9TH. THIS IS IN PART DUE TO THE RECENT SPEED INCREASE OBSERVED IN MSI. AN INCREASED WEAKENING TREND IS EXPECTED AS SSTS DECREASE, VWS CONTINUES TO INCREASE, AND LOW LEVEL INFLOW IS IMPACTED AS TY 08W APPROACHES THE COAST OF SOUTHERN JAPAN. TY 08W IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL ACROSS KYUSHU AT MINIMAL TYPHOON, POSSIBLY STRONG TROPICAL STORM, STRENGTH. AFTER LANDFALL, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE IN TRACK SPEED AND CONTINUE TO DEVOLVE AS THE ROUGH TERRAIN ACROSS JAPAN, ALONG WITH THE WESTERLIES, BEGINS TO INDUCE EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION. TY NEOGURI WILL ACCELERATE TO THE NORTH-EAST UNDER THE COMBINED INFLUENCE OF THE DEEP MID-LATITUDE LOW AS IT MOVES OVER NORTHERN JAPAN AND THE STR. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE FULLY EXTRA- TROPICAL SOME TIME BETWEEN TAU 48 AND TAU 72. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, LENDING TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.// NNNN NNNN