MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 07W (DOKSURI) WARNING NR 11// RMKS// 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. TROPICAL STORM 07W (DOKSURI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 212 NM SOUTHEAST OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 20 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE COLD DENSE OVERCAST HAS BECOME MORE ELONGATED WITH STRONG SHEAR FROM THE NORTHEAST AND CLOUD TOPS HAVE SLIGHTLY WARMED. THE MESO- VORTICE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE MAIN CONVECTION HAS MAINTAINED AND BECOME INCREASINGLY DISTANT AND ELONGATED. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON A PGTW FIX WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. IT RESIDES IN THE NORTHEASTERN SECTOR OF THE MAIN CONVECTION, CONTINUING WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PHILOSOPHY. IT APPEARS THAT TS 07W HAS A STRONG MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION THAT CONTINUES TO REACH DOWN AND CREATE LOW- LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTERS (LLCC) THAT HAVE MADE TS DOKSURI SO HARD TO TRACK. THE STRONG TO MODERATE (20-30 KNOTS) SHEAR ACTING ON THE THE SYSTEM IS THEN SEPARATING THE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION FROM THE LLCC AND THE PROCESS OF RE-DEVELOPING A NEW LLCC CONTINUES AS OVERSHOOTING TOPS ARE CURRENTLY FORMING NEAR THE CURRENT POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS IS BASED ON THE PGTW DVORAK ESTIMATE OF 3.0/3.0. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE NORTH. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THERE IS NO POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL AND OVERALL MODERATE EQUATORWARD EXHAUST. 3. FORECAST REASONING. A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING. B. TS 07W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE FIRMLY ENTRENCHED STEERING STR AND MAKE LANDFALL SOUTHWEST OF HONG KONG SLIGHTLY AFTER TAU 24, WHERE IT WILL THEN DISSIPATE OVER LAND BY TAU 48. THE LANDFALL POSITION IS IN NEAR AGREEMENT WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AS NUMERICAL MODEL TRACKERS HAVE REMAINED TIGHTLY GROUPED. TS 07W SHOULD INTENSIFY TO A PEAK OF 55 KNOTS AS IT TRACKS OVER FAVORABLE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (26-28 CELSIUS) AND UNDER THE IN-PHASE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS. NOGAPS HAS BECOME MORE INLINE WITH THE MAJORITY OF MODEL CONSENSUS BUT GFS CONTINUES TO REMAIN THE LEFT MOST OUTLIER. THE OFFICIAL JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON THE MODEL CONSENSUS, DUE TO THE GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG TRACKERS, WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE.// NNNN NNNN