MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 05W (GUCHOL) WARNING NR 33// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. TYPHOON (TY) 05W (GUCHOL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 380 NM SOUTH- SOUTHWEST OF KYOTO, JAPAN HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 27 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH ELONGATED CONVECTION ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY. AN 182345Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS A BAND OF DEEP CONVECTION ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY WITH TIGHTLY CURVED BANDING IN THE 37GHZ IMAGE. THE INITIAL POSITION WAS BASED ON THE MSI IMAGERY, RJTD RADAR FIX, AND THE SSMIS 37GHZ IMAGE WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WAS BASED ON THE PGTW AND KNES DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 65 TO 77 KNOTS. TY 05W HAS BEGUN TO INTERACT WITH THE MID- LATITUDE WESTERLIES AND VERTICAL WIND SHEAR HAS INCREASED (25 TO 30 KNOTS). HOWEVER, THE 18/20Z AMSU CROSS-SECTION STILL DEPICTS A STRONG WARM CORE ANOMALY. TY 05W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) CENTERED TO THE EAST. 3. FORECAST REASONING. A. THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FOR TY 05W REMAINS UNCHANGED FROM THE LAST PROGNOSTIC REASONING. B. TY 05W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE STR THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. TY 05W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE INTERACTING WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND WEAKEN DUE TO INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND LAND INTERACTION AS IT TRACKS OVER HONSHU. THE SYSTEM SHOULD TRANSITION INTO A LARGE EXTRATROPICAL LOW WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 24 AND THERE IS HIGH TRACK CONFIDENCE DURING THIS PERIOD. HOWEVER, BY TAU 36, MODEL GUIDANCE DIVERGES AS THE GFDN AND UKMO MODELS TRACK THE SYSTEM BACK TO THE WEST, DUE TO MORE UNCERTAINTY AS THE EXTRATROPICAL LOW INCREASES IN SIZE AND TRACKS OVER JAPAN. HOWEVER, THIS FORECAST FAVORS A FASTER RECURVATURE SCENARIO AND IS IN AGREEMENT WITH JGSM, GFS, AND ECMWF.// NNNN NNNN