MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 25W (TWENTYFIVE) WARNING NR 01// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 25W (TWENTYFIVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 330 NM SOUTH OF NAVSTA GUAM, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH BUILDING CENTRAL CONVECTION AND WIDESPREAD BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER. A 141703Z SSMI 85GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A CONVECTIVE NOTCH WHICH SUPPORTS THE CURRENT POSITION WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 30 KNOTS BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM ALL AGENCIES AND REFLECTS THE RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM. TD 25W IS DEVELOPING IN A VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH A POINT SOURCE ANTICYCLONE PROVIDING RADIAL OUTFLOW AND LOW (5- 10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. ADDITIONALLY, SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE VERY WARM NEAR 30 CELSIUS AND OCEAN HEAT CONTENT IS VERY HIGH. TD 25W IS TRACKING SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH. 3. FORECAST REASONING. A. THIS IS THE INITIAL PROGNOSTIC REASONING AND SETS THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY. B. A VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL PROVIDE OPTIMAL CONDITIONS FOR THE SYSTEM TO RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATE OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AFTERWARDS, THE CYCLONE WILL TO GO THROUGH A RAPID INTENSIFICATION PHASE AS IT CONTINUES TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE PHILIPPINE SEA. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE OVERALL STEERING PATTERN AND SUPPORTS THE NEAR TERM TRACK FORECAST. C. IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST, TD 25W WILL REACH SUPER TYPHOON INTENSITY AS ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE. A STRONGER STR TO THE NORTH WILL FORCE THE SYSTEM WESTWARD TOWARDS LUZON. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN SURPRISINGLY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR AN INITIAL WARNING WITH ONLY A 200NM SPREAD AT TAU 120. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE EXPANSIVE SIZE OF THE CYCLONE, THERE MAY BE ERRATIC MOVEMENT IN THE NEAR TERM AS IT CONSOLIDATES WHICH LENDS TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL FORECAST.// NNNN NNNN