Tropical Storm EIGHT Advisory Tue Aug 18

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08W (EIGHT)
WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 08W (EIGHT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 180
NM SOUTHEAST OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 13
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A SLIGHTLY MORE CONSOLIDATED SYSTEM WITH FRAGMENTED
CONVECTIVE BANDING FEEDING FROM THE SOUTH AND WRAPPING INTO AN ILL-
DEFINED LLC OBSCURED BY DEEP CENTRAL CONVECTION. THE INITIAL
POSITION WAS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE BASED ON A LOW LEVEL NOTCH
FEATURE IN THE 172226Z SSMIS COLORIZED 37GHZ IMAGE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 30KTS IS BASED ON THE PGTW AND RJTD DVORAK ESTIMATES OF
T2.0/30KTS. ANALYSES INDICATE A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LIGHT
VWS, GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM 31C SSTS IN THE SOUTH CHINA
SEA. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THIS IS THE INITIAL PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE FOR THIS
SYSTEM AND SETS THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.
   B. TD 08W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON ITS CURRENT TRACK UNDER THE
STR, MAKING LANDFALL AROUND TAU 30 NEAR YANGJIANG, CHINA. THE
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL FUEL INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK OF 45KTS
AT TAU 24 BEFORE LANDFALL. AFTERWARD, THE RUGGED CHINESE TERRAIN, IN
ADDITION TO INCREASING VWS, WILL RAPIDLY ERODE THE SYSTEM TO
DISSIPATION BY TAU 48. NUMERICAL MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH MINOR SPREADING, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK
FORECAST THAT IS LAID CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS.//
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