Tropical Storm LINFA Advisory Sun Jul 05

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 10W (LINFA) WARNING NR
13//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM (TS) 10W (LINFA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 195 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT MSI
DEPICTS THE SYSTEM HAS MOVED OVERLAND AND THE DEEP CONVECTION IS
OBSCURING THE LLCC.  FOR THIS REASON, THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED
ON THE MSI AND PGTW SATELLITE FIX WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT
INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS IS BASED ON THE SLIGHTLY WEAKENED STRUCTURE AS
THE SYSTEM TRACKS OVERLAND. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE
SYSTEM REMAINS IN AN AREA OF MODERATE (20 KNOT) NORTHEASTERLY VWS
BEING OFFSET BY EXCELLENT EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. TS 10W IS CURRENTLY
TRACKING UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR TO THE EAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. HOWEVER, THE JTWC TRACK
HAS SHIFTED AS THE SYSTEM MOVED OVERLAND.
   B. TS 10W WILL TRACK GENERALLY WESTWARD IN THE SHORT TERM UNDER
THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
SLIGHTLY WEAKEN AS IT CROSSES NORTHERN LUZON. BY TAU 24,
MODERATE VWS WILL PERSIST, BUT FAVORABLE SST AND OHC WILL ALLOW TS
10W TO SLIGHTLY INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES OVER LUZON STRAIT.
CONCURRENTLY, THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO TURN POLEWARD TOWARDS A
BREAK IN THE STEERING STR.
   C. AFTER TAU 72, SLOW MOVEMENT AND WEAKENING TREND ARE EXPECTED
AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO TRACK NORTHWARD. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE
HAS SLIGHTLY IMPROVED, BUT STILL SHOWS SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN
THE TRACK SPEEDS. THIS IS DUE TO THE COMPLEX STEERING ENVIRONMENT
WITH THE BREAK IN THE STR, POSSIBLE DIRECT CYCLONE INTERACTION WITH
TS 09W, AND STRONG WESTERLY FLOW AT THE LOW AND MID LEVELS SOUTH OF
THE SYSTEM. DUE TO THE COMPLEX ENVIRONMENT AND UNCERTAINTY IN THE
FORECAST INTENSITY IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, THE OVERALL JTWC FORECAST
CONFIDENCE LEVEL IS LOW.//
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