Tropical Storm MATMO Advisory Tue Jul 22

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 10W (MATMO) WARNING NR 19//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TYPHOON 10W (MATMO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 294 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI)
DEPICTS INCREASED ORGANIZATION ALONG THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE SYSTEM
AS A SECOND FEEDER BAND IS BEGINNING TO FORM. CURRENT INTENSITY HAS
BEEN MAINTAINED AT 80 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES REMAINING AT
CONSISTENT LEVELS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. POSITIONING OF TY 10W
HAS BEEN DIFFICULT WITH THE EXPANSION OF DEEP CONVECTION IN THE
VICINITY OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THE IMPROVING POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL IS FUELING THE
RECENT INCREASE IN CONVECTION OBSERVED IN MSI. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (SSTS) ARE VERY FAVORABLE (29 TO 30 DEGREES CELSIUS)
FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT IN THE NEAR TERM. TY 10W IS TRACKING ALONG
THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
ANCHORED TO THE NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TY 10W IS FORECAST TO REMAIN ON ITS CURRENT TRACK UNDER THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR THROUGH TAU 48. IMPROVING UPPER LEVEL
CONDITIONS AND FAVORABLE SSTS ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK ARE CONDUCIVE
FOR FURTHER INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS, LEADING TO A PEAK
INTENSITY OF 95 KNOTS AS IT APPROACHES TAIWAN. AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS
OVER TAIWAN AND INTO THE TAIWAN STRAIT, LOW LEVEL INFLOW AND
FRICTIONAL EFFECTS WILL CAUSE TY 10W TO WEAKEN QUICKLY. DUE TO THE
QUICK TRACK OVER THE TAIWAN STRAIT, THE SYSTEM WILL NOT HAVE ADEQUATE
TIME TO RE-CONSOLIDATE THE LOW LEVEL FLOW. INCREASING FRICTIONAL
EFFECTS AFTER TAU 36 WILL FURTHER WEAKEN TY 10W, WITH DISSIPATION
BEGINNING AROUND TAU 48. A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THE STR AND CAUSE TY MATMO TO TURN
POLEWARD AROUND TAU 48. FURTHER IMPACTS DUE TO LAND INFLUENCE WILL
LEAD TO THE FULL DISSIPATION OF THE SYSTEM BY TAU 72. THE REMNANTS
OF TY 10W WILL INTERACT WITH THE SEMI-STATIONARY MID-LATITUDE
BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDS FROM EASTERN CHINA THROUGH SOUTHERN KOREA.
MODEL GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THE EVENTUAL ABSORPTION OF THE REMNANT LOW
INTO THIS BOUNDARY BEYOND TAU 72. BASED ON THE TIGHT GROUPING OF
MODEL GUIDANCE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK.//
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