Tropical Storm CHAN-HOM Advisory Mon Jul 06

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 09W (CHAN-HOM) WARNING
NR 23//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM (TS) 09W (CHAN-HOM), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1019 NM
SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT MSI CONTINUES TO DEPICT DEEPENED
CENTRAL CONVECTION WITH TIGHTLY-CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO A
CONSOLIDATING LLCC. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE MSI AS WELL
AS A 060030Z METOP-B WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY HAS
INCREASED TO 55 KNOTS BASED ON THE IMPROVING STRUCTURE AND
CORRESPONDING DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T3.5 FROM PGTW AND RJTD.
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TS 09W IS NOW LOCATED IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW VWS AND RADIAL OUTFLOW AS EVIDENT ON THE WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY. TS 09W IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF
THE DEEP-LAYERED STR.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TS 09W IS FORECAST TO RESUME A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO
NORTHWESTWARD TRAJECTORY UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR
ENTRENCHED TO THE NORTH. IN ADDITION TO CONDUCIVE SST AND OHC,
FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST, LEADING TO RAPID
INTENSIFICATION REACHING 115 KNOTS OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
AFTERWARD, UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE, SLOWING
DOWN THE INTENSITY. DESPITE THE MARGINAL UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS,
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL CONTINUE TO FURTHER INTENSIFY CHAN-HOM
LEADING TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF 130 KNOTS.
   C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, TS 09W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK
NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE DOMINANT STEERING STR. THE
COMBINED EFFECT OF LIMITED UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE, LOWER OHC VALUE
AND COOLER SST WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM AS IT APPROACH THE
EASTERN COAST OF CHINA. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NAVGEM WHICH REMAINS
THE SOLE OUTLIER, DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE GOOD
AGREEMENT. DUE TO THE TIGHT GROUPING AMONG AVAILABLE TRACKERS, THE
JTWC TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE LEVEL REMAINS HIGH WHICH IS
POSITIONED CLOSE TO MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.//
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