Tropical Storm MATMO Advisory Wed Jul 23

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 10W (MATMO) WARNING NR 23//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TYPHOON 10W (MATMO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 92 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF
TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CENTRAL
CONVECTION HAS BEEN WEAKENING AND THINNING OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS
ASSOCIATED WITH A DISRUPTION OF THE LOW LEVEL INFLOW AS TY 10W
TRACKED OVER TAIWAN AND INTO THE TAIWAN STRAIT. THE CURRENT POSITION
IS SUPPORTED BY RADAR FIXES FROM TAIWAN AND THE POSITION FIXES FROM
PGTW AND RJTD. INTENSITY HAS BEEN DECREASED TO 70 KNOTS AS THE DVORAK
ESTIMATES REFLECT THE OBSERVED WEAKENING TREND. TY 10W IS TRACKING
ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) ANCHORED TO THE NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TY 10W IS FORECAST TO REMAIN ON A NORTHWESTWARD TRACK UNDER
THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR THROUGH TAU 24, AFTER WHICH A MID-
LATITUDE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL WEAKEN THE STR
AND CAUSE TY MATMO TO TURN POLEWARD. DUE TO THE QUICK TRACK OVER THE
TAIWAN STRAIT, TY 10W WILL NOT HAVE SUFFICIENT TIME TO RE-STRENGTHEN.
AS TY 10W MAKES LANDFALL INTO MAINLAND CHINA, AROUND TAU 06, THE
INCREASING FRICTIONAL LAND EFFECTS WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN TY 10W. THE
COMPLETE DISSIPATION OF THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED BY TAU 48. HOWEVER,
BEYOND TAU 48, THE REMNANTS OF TY 10W WILL INTERACT WITH THE SEMI-
STATIONARY MID-LATITUDE BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM EASTERN CHINA THROUGH
SOUTHERN KOREA, EVENTUALLY BEING ABSORBED WITHIN THE MID-LATITUDE
WESTERLY FLOW. MODEL GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THIS SCENARIO, WITH TRACK
GUIDANCE MAINTAINING A TIGHT GROUPING THROUGH THE FORECAST, LENDING
HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE FORECAST TRACK.//
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