Tropical Storm NEOGURI Advisory Mon Jul 07

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR SUPER TYPHOON 08W (NEOGURI)//
WARNING NR 17//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 08W (NEOGURI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 367 NM
SOUTH OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 11
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED AN EXPANSIVE AREAL
COVERAGE AS TIGHTLY CURVED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDS, MOSTLY FEEDING FROM
THE SOUTHERN FLANK, WRAPPED EVEN TIGHTER INTO A NEW WELL-DEFINED
35-NM EYE. THE 12-HOUR MSI LOOP ALSO SHOWS THE EYEWALL HAS EXPANDED
INTO THIS NEW EYE DIAMETER. THIS IS CAPTURED IN A 062316Z 89 GHZ
SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE AS A HIGHLY REFLECTIVE CONVECTIVE RING. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE MSI ANIMATION AND THE MICROWAVE
IMAGE WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS AVERAGED
FROM DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS 04 DEGREES SOUTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA
OF LOW (05-10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). ADDITIONALLY, THE
CYCLONE HAS MAINTAINED A MESOSCALE POINT SOURCE THAT IS PROVIDING
HIGHLY-EFFICIENT RADIAL VENTILATION. THIS IS EVIDENT ON ANIMATED
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. STY 08W CONTINUES TO TRACK ALONG THE SOUTHWEST
EXTENSION OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. STY 08W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 12
BEFORE TURNING NORTHWARD AS THE STR RECEDES WITH THE APPROACH OF A
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH FROM THE NORTHWEST. AFTER TAU 24, THE CYCLONE
WILL CREST THE RIDGE AND RECURVE NORTHEASTWARD AS A SECONDARY TROUGH
FURTHER WEAKENS THE STEERING STR. DUE TO VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS MENTIONED IN PARA 2, FURTHER INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED
OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS WITH A PEAK OF 145 KNOTS. BEYOND TAU 36,
COOLING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST), INCREASING VWS AHEAD OF THE
MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES, AND LANDFALL INTO KYUSHU, JAPAN, WILL SLOWLY
ERODE THE SYSTEM.
   C. AFTER TAU 72, STY NEOGURI WILL COMMENCE EXTRA-TROPICAL
TRANSITION AND ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE COLD BAROCLINIC
ZONE. THE INCREASED MID-LATITUDE INTERACTION, DECREASING SST, AND
LAND INTERACTION WILL CAUSE ITS RAPID DETERIORATION BEFORE BECOMING A
FULL-FLEDGED COLD CORE LOW BY TAU 120. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE
JTWC TRACK FORECAST WHICH IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS.//
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