Tropical Storm DOLPHIN Advisory Sat May 16

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 07W (DOLPHIN) WARNING NR 38//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TYPHOON (TY) 07W (DOLPHIN LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 167 NM NORTHWEST
OF NAVSTA GUAM, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MSI CONTINUES TO DEPICT CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO
A 26NM EYE, PUTTING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC CURRENT POSITION.
THE INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 110 KTS BASED ON THE DVROAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM RJTD AND PTGW AND OVERALL STRUCTURE OF THE
SYSTEM. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM HAS GOOD
POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND LOW VWS. TY DOLPHIN IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ON
THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A DEEP STR.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TYPHOON DOLPHIN WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK TO THE NORTHWEST
THROUGH TAU 36 BEFORE THE SYSTEM CROSSES THE RIDGE AXIS BY TAU 48.
EXPECT SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM THOUGH THIS TIME
PERIOD AS LOW VWS AND HIGH SSTS IN ADDITION TO DUAL OUTFLOW CHANNELS
AFFECT THE SYSTEM, PEAKING AT 135KTS. BEYOND TAU 48, THE SYSTEM WILL
BEGIN TO RECURVE AROUND THE RIDGE AND START TO BE INFLUENCED BY AN
APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. AT THIS TIME, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN
TO WEAKEN DUE TO HIGHER VWS.
   C. IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD, TY 07W WILL ACCELERATE INTO
THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH AND WEAKEN AS THE VWS INCREASES AND SST
DECREASES. EXPECT THE SYSTEM TO BEGIN ETT BY TAU 96. DUE TO DYNAMIC
MODEL GUIDANCE BEING IN VERY TIGHT AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST
PERIOD  THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST LAID
CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.//
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