Tropical Storm MAYSAK Advisory Sat Apr 04

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 04W (MAYSAK) WARNING NR 33//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TYPHOON (TY) 04W (MAYSAK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 319 NM EAST OF
MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS
PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION WITH TIGHTLY-CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO
AN OBSCURED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
BASED ON THE MSI LOOP AND EXTRAPOLATED FROM A MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE
ON THE 032326Z 36GHZ GPM MICROWAVE SATELLITE PASS WITH GOOD
CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 75 KNOTS IS BASED ON AN OVERALL
ASSESSMENT OF CLOSELY-SPACED DVORAK FIXES FROM ALL REPORTING
AGENCIES. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED IN AN
AREA OF LOW TO MODERATE (10 TO 20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS)
OFFSET BY VIGOROUS POLEWARD OUTFLOW THAT IS EVIDENT ON THE WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY. TY MAYSAK IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY
OF THE DEEP LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TY 04W WILL CONTINUE TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 72
UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR, MAKING LANDFALL JUST NORTH
OF CASIGURAN, PHILIPPINES, SHORTLY BEFORE TAU 24. INCREASING VWS AND
LAND INTERACTION WILL GRADUALLY ERODE THE SYSTEM. HOWEVER, IT WILL BE
A MINIMAL TYPHOON PRIOR TO LANDFALL AND WILL EMERGE AS A 50-KNOT
TROPICAL STORM IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA BY TAU 36.
   C. BEYOND TAU 72, A STRONG NORTHEASTERLY COLD SURGE THROUGH THE
TAIWAN STRAIT WILL FURTHER ERODE TY MAYSAK AND CONTRIBUTE TO ITS
DISSIPATION BY TAU 96. DYNAMIC GUIDANCE REMAINS IN OVERALL GOOD
AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
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