Tropical Storm DOLPHIN Advisory Tue May 12

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 07W (DOLPHIN) WARNING
NR 22//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM (TS) 07W (DOLPHIN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 157 NM
WEST OF UJELANG, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. A 112329Z METOP-B AND ASSOCIATED ASCAT SHOW THE
SYSTEM CONTINUING TO DEVELOP SLOWLY. THE CURRENT POSITION AND
INTENSITY ARE BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED MICROWAVE IMAGES. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT 07W IS IN AREA OF LOW VWS AND SOME
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY TRACKING UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A STR TO THE NORTHWEST OF TS DOLPHIN.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TS 07W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK TO THE WEST UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF THE STR THROUGH TAU 36. BEYOND THAT, EXPECT THE SYSTEM TO START
TO TAKE A MORE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK AS THE STR BUILDS IN TO THE
NORTH EAST OF THE SYSTEM AND 07W BEGINS TO TURN INTO THE BREAK IN
THE RIDGE. AVERAGE INTENSIFICATION RATES ARE FORECAST AS OHC REMAINS
STEADY AND OVERALL OUTFLOW AND VWS IS FAIRLY STANDARD THROUGH TAU 72.
   C. IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD, TS DOLPHIN WILL CONTINUE TO
TRACK TO THE NORTHWEST AS THE STR DEEPENS AND THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO
ROUND THE RIDGE AXIS. DUE TO HIGH SSTS, LOW VWS AND ANTICIPATED
RADIAL OUTFLOW, EXPECT A JUMP IN THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM WITH A
POSSIBLE RI SITUATION. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT,
LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST.//
NNNN
NNNN