Tropical Storm ONE Advisory Fri Jul 17

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 01C (HALOLA) WARNING NR
28//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM 01C (HALOLA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1160 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF IWO JIMA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED MSI DEPICTS FLARING DEEP CONVECTION
OBSCURING THE LLCC. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE MSI AND
SATELLITE FIXES FROM PGTW AND RJTD WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS IS BASED ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM ALL REPORTING AGENCIES. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS SOUTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA
OF MODERATE (15 TO 20 KNOT) VWS. THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TS 01C WILL CONTINUE TRACKING GENERALLY WESTWARD TO
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR. THE VWS
IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY RELAX ALLOWING FOR THE SYSTEM TO SLOWLY
INTENSIFY, REACHING 70 KNOTS BY TAU 72.
   C. BEYOND TAU 72, TS HALOLA WILL BEGIN TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD
AS THE STR WEAKENS. THE SYSTEM WILL PEAK AT 80 KNOTS BY TAU 96.
AFTERWARDS, COLDER SSTS AND INCREASING VWS WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN TS
01C TOWARDS THE END OF THE FORECAST. NUMERIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
FAIRLY TIGHT AGREEMENT LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK
FOREAST.//
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