Tropical Storm ONE Advisory Tue Jul 14

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 01C (HALOLA) WARNING
NR 16//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TYPHOON (TY) 01C (HALOLA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 569 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF WAKE ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT MSI DEPICTS THE SYSTEM HAS RAPIDLY
INTENSIFIED OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS WITH INCREASING SPIRAL BANDS
WRAPPING INTO A NEWLY FORMED 8 NM DIAMETER EYE. THE CURRENT POSITION
IS BASED ON THE EYE FEATURE ON MSI WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY HAS INCREASED TO 80 KNOTS BASED ON THE IMPROVING STRUCTURE
AND AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF THE INCREASE IN DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FROM ALL REPORTING AGENCIES. UPPER LEVEL-ANALYSIS
INDICATES TYPHOON HALOLA IS LOCATED IN AN AREA OF LOW TO MODERATE
(10 TO 20 KNOT) VWS THAT IS OFFSET BY GOOD DUAL OUTFLOW CHANNELS. TY
HALOLA IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A STR.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TY 01C WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK TO THE NORTHWEST UNDER THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR. FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN,
ALLOWING THE SYSTEM TO FURTHER INTENSIFY.
   C. BEYOND TAU 72, TY HALOLA WILL CONTINUE TRACKING
NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR AS THE RIDGE
CONTINUES TO BUILD. EXPECT CONTINUAL INTENSIFICATION DUE TO
PERSISTENT FAVORABLE CONDITIONS, REACHING A PEAK OF 120 KNOTS BY TAU
96. AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT LENDING TO
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
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