Tropical Storm ONE Advisory Mon Jul 13

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 01C (HALOLA) WARNING
NR 12//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM (TS) 01C (HALOLA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 831 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF WAKE ISLAND, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
(MSI) SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED OVERALL CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE.
THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE MSI LOOP AND ON AGENCY FIXES.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 50 KNOTS IS BASED ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT
OF DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES AND IS SUPPORTED BY THE 2206Z
ASCAT PASS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA
OF MODERATE (15-20 KNOT) NORTHERLY VWS. HOWEVER, THE VWS IS OFFSET BY
STRONG RADIAL OUTFLOW THAT IS PROVIDING VENTILATION TO THE ASSOCIATED
CONVECTION, AS EVIDENCED ON ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THE CYCLONE
IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED STR TO THE
NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THIS IS THE INITIAL JTWC PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE AND SETS
THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY..
   B. TS 01C WILL CONTINUE TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING
INFLUENCE OF THE STR. IT IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY AS
VIGOROUS OUTFLOW PERSISTS AND AS IT TRACKS ALONG WARM SSTS.
ADDITIONALLY, VWS IS EXPECTED TO RELAX AS THE UPPER LEVEL WIND FLOW
BECOMES MORE IN-PHASE WITH THE FORECAST STORM MOTION. THE SYSTEM WILL
REACH TYPHOON STRENGTH BY TAU 24.
   C. IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD, TS HALOLA WILL CONTINUE TRACKING
NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR. IT IS ALSO
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTENSIFYING AS THE AFOREMENTIONED FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS PERSIST. THE SYSTEM WILL REACH 95 KNOTS BY TAU 120. THE
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE, ALBEIT LIMITED, IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT. THIS,
IN ADDITION TO A STRAIGHTFORWARD STEERING MECHANISM, LENDS TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
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