Tropical Storm CHAMPI Advisory Thu Oct 22

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 25W (CHAMPI) WARNING NR 36//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TYPHOON (TY) 25W (CHAMPI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 66 NM SOUTH OF
IWO TO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM
HAS FURTHER INTENSIFIED AS TIGHTLY-CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPED
TIGHTER INTO A 14-NM RAGGED EYE, WHICH SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION
WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 100 KNOTS IS BASED ON
CONGRUENT DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND RJTD. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH AN ANTICYCLONE OVER THE CENTER
AND EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW, ENHANCED BY THE MIDLATITUDE
WESTERLIES. TY 25W IS NOW TRACKING ALONG THE POLEWARD SIDE OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR).
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TY 25W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS - PRIMARILY INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
AND COOLER SSTS - WILL BEGIN TO ERODE THE CYCLONE. BY TAU 36, TY 25W
IS FORECAST TO BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION AS IT BEGINS TO
INTERACT WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE WHILE ACCELERATING NORTHEASTWARD.
TY CHAMPI WILL BECOME A COLD-CORE LOW BY TAU 72. DYNAMIC GUIDANCE
REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK, WHICH IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS.//
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