Tropical Storm DOLPHIN Advisory Sat May 09

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 07W (SEVEN) WARNING NR
10//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM (TS) 07W (SEVEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 57 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KOSRAE, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 04
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) CONTINUES TO DEPICT AN ELONGATED SIGNATURE WITH CURVED
BANDING WRAPPING INTO AN OBSCURED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). A 082321Z GPM MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS BROKEN CONVECTIVE
BANDS SURROUNDING THE LLCC. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE
MSI, PGTW SATELLITE FIX AND AFOREMENTIONED MICROWAVE IMAGE WITH FAIR
CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 35 KNOTS BASED ON
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES PGTW AND KNES. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THE SYSTEM REMAINS IN AN AREA OF MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND STRONG WESTWARD AND POLEWARD
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. TS 07W HAS TURNED POLEWARD AND IS CURRENTLY
TRACKING UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A BUILDING SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TS 07W WILL CONTINUE TO TURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE STEERING STR. THE COMBINED EFFECT OF DECREASING
VWS, INCREASING WESTWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AND PASSAGE OVER VERY
WARM WATER WILL ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO CONTINUE INTENSIFYING.
   C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, TS 07W WILL REMAIN ON A WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD TRAJECTORY UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR.
FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT AND PASSAGE OVER WARM WATER WILL
SUPPORT FURTHER INTENSIFICATION. AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE NEAR TERM, BUT INDICATES SIGNIFICANT SPREAD,
IN TERMS OF TRACK DIRECTION AND SPEED. FOR THIS REASON, THE JTWC
TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE LEVEL REMAINS LOW.//
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