Tropical Storm MATMO Advisory Sun Jul 20

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 10W (MATMO) WARNING NR 11//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TYPHOON (TY) 10W (MATMO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 508 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
(MSI) SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED A CENTRAL DEEP CONVECTION
THAT CONTINUES TO OBSCURE THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS BASED ON A MICROWAVE HALF-EYE FEATURE IN THE 192056Z
AMSR-2 PASS AND ON A NOTCH FEATURE IN THE 192330Z ENHANCED INFRARED
IMAGE WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD SLIGHTLY
HIGHER THAN AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES TO REFLECT THE SUSTAINED
CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM
REMAINS IN AN AREA OF MODERATE (15 TO 25 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS) OFFSET BY GOOD WESTWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. THE CYCLONE IS
TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TY 10W IS EXPECTED TO TRACK GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD THROUGHOUT
ITS LIFESPAN. UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE WITH
DECREASING VWS AND THE ANTICIPATED OPENING OF A POLEWARD OUTFLOW
CHANNEL AS THE SYSTEM GAINS LATITUDE. THESE PLUS THE PERENNIALLY WARM
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE PHILIPPINE SEA WILL FUEL RAPID
INTENSIFICATION, PEAKING AT 110 KNOTS BY TAU 72 AS THE CYCLONE
APPROACHES TAIWAN.
   C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, TY MATMO WILL DRAG ACROSS CENTRAL TAIWAN,
INTO THE TAIWAN STRAIT AND FINALLY MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE CHINESE
SOUTHEASTERN SEABOARD BY TAU 96. AFTERWARD, INTERACTION WITH THE
RUGGED TERRAIN WILL RAPIDLY DECAY THE SYSTEM. AVAILABLE DYNAMIC
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH
CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST WHICH IS POSITIONED JUST TO THE
LEFT OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TO OFFSET THE JAPANESE TRACKERS
THAT ARE RIGHT OUTLIERS.//
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