Tropical Storm NEOGURI Advisory Sun Jul 06

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 08W (NEOGURI) WARNING NR 13//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TYPHOON (TY) 08W (NEOGURI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 583 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 16 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS SUSTAINED SUPER
DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPING TIGHTLY INTO A SYMMETRIC 35-NM EYE.
THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE FEATURE WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON CONGRUENT DVORAK
ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, RJTD, AND KNES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
THE CYCLONE HAS MAINTAINED A POINT SOURCE ANTICYCLONE THAT IS
PROVIDING A HIGHLY EFFICIENT RADIAL OUTFLOW MECHANISM. ADDITIONALLY,
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) REMAINS LOW (05 TO 10 KNOTS) AS TY 08W
TRACKS ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TY 08W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE ALONG A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK
THROUGH TAU 24 BEFORE TURNING NORTHWARD AS THE STR RECEDES UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A SERIES OF TRANSITORY MID-LATITUDE LOWS APPROACHING
FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE CYCLONE WILL CREST THE RIDGE AND BEGIN TO
TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AFTER TAU 48. TY 08W WILL INTENSIFY OVER
THE NEXT 48 HOURS DUE TO STRONG UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT, IN ADDITION TO
WARM ALONG-TRACK SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST). BEYOND TAU 48,
COOLING SSTS AND INCREASING VWS AHEAD OF THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES
WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM.
   C. AFTER TAU 72, TY NEOGURI WILL BEGIN TO ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD
TOWARDS KYUSHU, JAPAN, AS THE STEERING STR CONTINUES TO RECEDE. THE
INCREASED MID-LATITUDE INTERACTION, DECREASING SST VALUES, AND LAND
INTERACTION WILL CAUSE ITS RAPID DETERIORATION. HOWEVER, TY 08W WILL
REMAIN AN INTENSE SYSTEM AS IT MAKES LANDFALL INTO SOUTHERN JAPAN.
AROUND TAU 96, TY NEOGURI WILL BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION AS IT
BECOMES EMBEDDED IN THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE
REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH SLIGHT VARIATIONS AT THE RECURVE
POINT. THE JTWC FORECAST REMAINS CLOSE TO MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH
HIGH CONFIDENCE.//
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