Tropical Storm SOUDELOR Advisory Wed Aug 05

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 13W (SOUDELOR) WARNING NR 24//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON 13W (SOUDELOR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 574 NM SOUTHEAST OF
KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO HAVE GOOD
CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPING INTO A SHARPLY-OUTLINED 16-NM DIAMETER EYE
WITH SOME DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT. ADDITIONALLY, SUBSIDENCE CAN BE SEEN
ALONG THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY, LIMITING CONVECTION ON THE NORTHERN
SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. THIS IS REINFORCED BY A 042309Z SSMIS PARTIAL
PASS SHOWING THE DEEP CONVECTION ON THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
LLCC.  THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE FEATURE IN THE MSI
LOOP WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 115 KNOTS
SUPPORTS DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM ALL REPORTING AGENCIES AND REFLECTS
THE WEAKENED STATE OF THE SYSTEM. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TY
13W IS LOCATED IN AN AREA OF LOW VWS AND GOOD DIFFLUENCE ALOFT.
HOWEVER, A TUTT IS CAUSING SUBSIDENCE ALONG THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY.
TY SOUDELOR IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A
DEEP-LAYERED STR TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TY 13W WILL CONTINUE ON A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRAJECTORY
THROUGH TAU 72 UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR. TY SOUDELOR
WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE SUBSIDENCE REMAINS
ON THE NORTHERN SIDE. BEYOND THAT, EXPECT THE SYSTEM TO GRADUALLY
INCREASE IN INTENSITY DUE TO GOOD OHC, LOW VWS AND GOOD OUTFLOW WITH
A SECONDARY PEAK OF 125 KNOTS AT TAU 48. BY TAU 72, TY SOUDELOR WILL
IMPACT CENTRAL TAIWAN, WITH THE TOPOGRAPHICAL AFFECTS OF THE YUSHAN
RANGE DECAYING THE SYSTEM.
   C. IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD, TY SOUDELOR WILL TRACK ACROSS
THE TAIWAN STRAIT, MAKING LANDFALL IN THE FUJIAN PROVINCE. LAND
INTERACTION AND WEAK UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW WILL CONTINUE TO DEGRADE
THE SYSTEM AS IT TRACKS TOWARDS PUQI BY THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. NUMERIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT
THE FORECAST PERIOD, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK
FORECAST.//
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