Tropical Storm HAISHEN Advisory Mon Apr 06

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05W (HAISHEN)
WARNING NR 13//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 05W (HAISHEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 116
NM NORTHWEST OF CHUUK, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 01 KNOT OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE
SYSTEM CONTINUES TO UNRAVEL AS THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION REMAINS
SHEARED NORTHEASTWARD, FULLY EXPOSING AN ILL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) THAT REMAINS QUASI-STATIONARY.
THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE ABOVE ANIMATION. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS BASED ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM
PGTW AND KNES. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES AN UNFAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH HIGH (30 TO 40 KNOT) SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS); HOWEVER, A POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL IS PROVIDING
VENTILATION TO THE WAYWARD CONVECTION. TD 05W IS CURRENTLY
QUASI-STATIONARY UNDER TWO COMPETING STEERING MECHANISMS: A WEAKENED
EXTENSION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND A NEAR EQUATORIAL
RIDGE TO THE SOUTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. THE STEERING ENVIRONMENT FOR TD HAISHEN WILL NOT CHANGE AT
LEAST FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AS SUCH, IT WILL REMAIN IN A HIGH VWS
AREA WHICH WILL CAUSE ITS DISSIPATION IN 36 HOURS OR LESS. THERE
REMAINS A WIDE SPREAD IN THE DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE LENDING LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
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