Tropical Storm MAYSAK Advisory Sun Mar 29

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 04W (MAYSAK) WARNING NR 09//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TYPHOON (TY) 04W (MAYSAK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 13 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF CHUUK HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS WELL
DEFINED CONVECTIVE SPIRAL BANDING WRAPPING INTO A CONSOLIDATED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 282110Z SSMIS 89GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGE DEPICTS A SMALL MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE CENTERED WITHIN A
SYMMETRIC CENTRAL CORE. THE MOST INTENSE CONVECTION REMAINS ALONG
THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE CORE WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING
WRAPPING IN FROM ALL QUADRANTS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE
AFOREMENTIONED MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 70 KNOTS IS BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM RJTD, PGTW, AND KNES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
REMAINS FAVORABLE WITH LOW (10-15 KNOT) EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS) OFFSET BY STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH DIVERGENCE
ALOFT, WHICH IS EVIDENT IN THE WATER VAPOR LOOP. TY MAYSAK IS
TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP LAYERED
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TY 04W WILL CONTINUE TRACKING WESTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
THE DOMINANT STEERING STR THROUGH TAU 72. FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL
CONDITIONS AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ABOVE 29 CELSIUS WILL ALLOW
THE TYPHOON TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY, REACHING A PEAK INTENSITY OF 120
KNOTS NEAR TAU 72.
   C. BEYOND TAU 72, TY 04W WILL TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AS THE
STEERING STR WEAKENS DUE TO A PASSING SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO THE NORTH.
AS THE TYPHOON GAINS LATITUDE IT WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT
ENCOUNTERS INCREASED VWS (15-20 KNOT). DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE
REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, LENDING TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
TRACK FORECAST.//
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