Tropical Storm NOUL Advisory Mon May 11

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 06W (NOUL) WARNING NR 33//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TYPHOON (TY) 06W (NOUL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 481 NM SOUTHWEST
OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS LOOSENED
CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A 5-NM CLOUD-FILLED EYE, WHICH
SUPPORTS THE CURRENT POSITION WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 105 KNOTS IS BASED ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF DVORAK
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM ALL REPORTING AGENCIES AND
WEAKENING TREND. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM REMAINS
IN AN AREA OF MODERATE (20 TO 25 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS)
WITH GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW AS IT TAPS INTO THE MID-LATITUDE
WESTERLIES, SUSTAINING THE DEEP CONVECTION. TY 06W IS CURRENTLY
TRACKING POLEWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP LAYERED
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TY 06W IS EXPECTED TO ROUND THE RIDGE AXIS OVER THE NEXT 12
HOURS. THE COMBINED EFFECTS OF INCREASING VWS AND DECREASING SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL DETERIORATE TY 06W AS IT ACCELERATES
NORTHEASTWARD. BY TAU 24, THE SYSTEM WILL BROADEN AND GAIN FRONTAL
CHARACTERISTICS AS IT BEGINS EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT). THE
SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 36 AS A STRONG COLD-CORE
LOW. THEREAFTER, THE EXPECTED MID-LATITUDE LOW WILL CONTINUE
TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF CENTRAL JAPAN AND FURTHER ON
INTO THE NORTHWESTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS
IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST.//
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