Tropical Storm PHANFONE Advisory Mon Oct 06

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 18W (PHANFONE) WARNING NR 30//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TYPHOON (TY) 18W (PHANFONE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 66 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 32 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
(MSI) DEPICTS A WEAKENING SYSTEM WITH CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE
NORTHEAST. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE MSI AND RADAR FIXES
FROM JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 70 KNOTS IS BASED ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM ALL REPORTING AGENCIES AND WEAKENING TREND.
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED
WITH THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES HAS IMPACTED THE SYSTEM. TY 18W IS
ACCELERATING NORTHEASTWARD AS IT UNDERGOES EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION
(ETT).
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TY 18W WILL BE FULLY ABSORBED INTO THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AS IT
COMPLETES ETT OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR POSSIBLY SOONER. STRONG VWS
AND COOLING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL RAPIDLY ERODE THE SYSTEM
AS IT TRANSITIONS INTO A STORM FORCE COLD-CORE LOW. THE AVAILABLE
NUMERIC GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE
TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST THAT IS LAID SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF AND
FASTER THAN MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.//
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