Tropical Storm SOUDELOR Advisory Tue Aug 04

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR SUPER TYPHOON 13W (SOUDELOR) WARNING
NR 20//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 13W (SOUDELOR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 822 NM
SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED
A HIGHLY SYMMETRIC SIGNATURE AND A SHARPLY OUTLINED 15-NM EYE. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE FEATURE IN THE MSI LOOP WITH
HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 155 KNOTS IS BASED ON
CONGRUENT AND CONCENTRIC DVORAK FIXES FROM PGTW AND RJTD. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES STY 13W IS IN AN AREA OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
AND EXCELLENT DUAL OUTFLOW. IN ADDITION, SSTS AT 31 CELSIUS ARE
HIGHLY-CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. THE CYCLONE IS CURRENTLY
TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUB-TROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. STY 13W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE WELL-
ESTABLISHED STR. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
CONDUCIVE FOR INTENSIFICATION, PEAKING AT 160 KNOTS FROM TAU 12 TO
24. AFTERWARDS, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS BECOME SLIGHTLY LESS
FAVORABLE LEADING TO GRADUAL WEAKENING.
   C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, STY 13W WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN DUE TO
REDUCED OCEAN HEAT CONTENT, LOWER SSTS AND A SLIGHT INCREASE IN VWS.
STY SOUDELOR WILL CLIP THE NORTHERN COAST OF TAIWAN SHORTLY AT TAU
96 BEFORE MAKING A FINAL LANDFALL OVER EASTERN CHINA BEFORE END OF
FORECAST. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
TRACK FORECAST.//
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