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Tropical Storm ERIKA Advisory Sat Aug 29

ZCZC MIAPWSAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL STORM ERIKA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052015
0300 UTC SAT AUG 29 2015

AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERIKA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 18.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H.

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME

WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
        00Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.


  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -

               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM
  TIME       00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO
             12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU

FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION       KT

CHARLESTON SC  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)

ATLANTA GA     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)

AUGUSTA GA     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)

SAVANNAH GA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   2( 5)

MAYPORT NS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   4( 7)   2( 9)

JACKSONVILLE   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   4( 7)   2( 9)

DAYTONA BEACH  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   3( 9)   2(11)

ORLANDO FL     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   5( 8)   3(11)   1(12)

COCOA BEACH FL 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   4( 7)   4(11)   1(12)

PATRICK AFB    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   4( 7)   4(11)   1(12)

FT PIERCE FL   34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   4( 9)   2(11)   1(12)

W PALM BEACH   34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   5(11)   1(12)   1(13)

MIAMI FL       34  X   X( X)   3( 3)   9(12)   4(16)   2(18)   X(18)

MARATHON FL    34  X   X( X)   8( 8)  16(24)   3(27)   1(28)   1(29)
MARATHON FL    50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)

KEY WEST FL    34  X   X( X)   5( 5)  19(24)   5(29)   X(29)   1(30)
KEY WEST FL    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   1( 5)

MARCO ISLAND   34  X   X( X)   2( 2)  16(18)   6(24)   2(26)   1(27)
MARCO ISLAND   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)   1( 5)

FT MYERS FL    34  X   X( X)   1( 1)  11(12)   9(21)   3(24)   1(25)
FT MYERS FL    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)

VENICE FL      34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   7( 8)  12(20)   4(24)   2(26)
VENICE FL      50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)

TAMPA FL       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   9(12)   5(17)   3(20)
TAMPA FL       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)

CEDAR KEY FL   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   6( 8)   6(14)   3(17)

TALLAHASSEE FL 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   6( 9)   5(14)

ST MARKS FL    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   7(11)   4(15)

APALACHICOLA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   9(13)   3(16)
APALACHICOLA   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)

GFMX 290N 850W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   9(15)   4(19)
GFMX 290N 850W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)

PANAMA CITY FL 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   7(10)   5(15)

COLUMBUS GA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   3( 7)

MONTGOMERY AL  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   3( 6)

PENSACOLA FL   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   4(10)

GFMX 290N 870W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   7(10)   4(14)

MOBILE AL      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   4( 8)

GULFPORT MS    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   3( 6)

STENNIS MS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)

BURAS LA       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   2( 5)

GFMX 280N 890W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   2( 6)

NEW ORLEANS LA 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)

GRAND BAHAMA   34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   2( 6)   2( 8)   X( 8)

NEW PROVIDENCE 34  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)

ANDROS         34  X   3( 3)   4( 7)   1( 8)   1( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)

GREAT EXUMA    34  X   4( 4)   X( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)

MAYAGUANA      34  3   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

CP SAN ANTONIO 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)

HAVANA         34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   8(10)   2(12)   1(13)   X(13)

ISLE OF PINES  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

CIENFUEGOS     34  X   X( X)   9( 9)   2(11)   1(12)   X(12)   X(12)

CAMAGUEY       34  X  16(16)   5(21)   X(21)   X(21)   X(21)   X(21)

GUANTANAMO BAY 34 17  30(47)   X(47)   X(47)   X(47)   X(47)   X(47)

LES CAYES      34 15   X(15)   X(15)   X(15)   X(15)   X(15)   X(15)

PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 92   X(92)   X(92)   X(92)   X(92)   X(92)   X(92)

CAPE BEATA     34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)

$$
FORECASTER AVILA
FORECASTER AVILA