MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 07W (SEVEN) WARNING NR 10// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 07W (SEVEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 57 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KOSRAE, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) CONTINUES TO DEPICT AN ELONGATED SIGNATURE WITH CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO AN OBSCURED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 082321Z GPM MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS BROKEN CONVECTIVE BANDS SURROUNDING THE LLCC. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE MSI, PGTW SATELLITE FIX AND AFOREMENTIONED MICROWAVE IMAGE WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 35 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES PGTW AND KNES. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM REMAINS IN AN AREA OF MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND STRONG WESTWARD AND POLEWARD DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. TS 07W HAS TURNED POLEWARD AND IS CURRENTLY TRACKING UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH. 3. FORECAST REASONING. A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. B. TS 07W WILL CONTINUE TO TURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE STEERING STR. THE COMBINED EFFECT OF DECREASING VWS, INCREASING WESTWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AND PASSAGE OVER VERY WARM WATER WILL ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO CONTINUE INTENSIFYING. C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, TS 07W WILL REMAIN ON A WEST- NORTHWESTWARD TRAJECTORY UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR. FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT AND PASSAGE OVER WARM WATER WILL SUPPORT FURTHER INTENSIFICATION. AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE NEAR TERM, BUT INDICATES SIGNIFICANT SPREAD, IN TERMS OF TRACK DIRECTION AND SPEED. FOR THIS REASON, THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE LEVEL REMAINS LOW.// NNNN NNNN