Tropical Storm DANAS Advisory Sun Oct 06

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 23W (DANAS) WARNING NR 11//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TYPHOON 23W (DANAS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 564 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST
OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 19
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST (CDO) ABOUT TO REVEAL AN
EYE FEATURE. THE CDO HAS DEEPENED IN THE LAST 12 HOURS AS EASTWARD
OUTFLOW INTO AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH REMAINED STEADY. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS BASED ON A MICROWAVE EYE ON A 052335Z TRMM PASS WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 80 KNOTS IS BASED ON THE HIGHER
END OF DVORAK ESTIMATES TO REFLECT THE DEVELOPING TREND. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS JUST SOUTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS IN AN
AREA OF LOW (05-10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). THE CYCLONE IS
TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TY 23W IS FORECAST TO REMAIN ON A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK
THROUGH TAU 24 UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE DEEP STR. AFTER
TAU 24, THE SYSTEM WILL CREST THE RIDGE AXIS AND BEGIN TO RECURVE
POLEWARD. CONTINUED FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS IN ADDITION TO
WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL ENHANCE FURTHER INTENSIFICATION
OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS, PEAKING AT 100 KNOTS. AFTER TAU 36, THE SYSTEM
WILL ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD AND BEGIN EXTRA TROPICAL TRANSITION AS
IT GETS EMBEDDED IN THE COLD BAROCLINIC AIR MASS. THE SYSTEM WILL
BECOME A COLD-CORE LOW BY TAU 72.
   C. AFTER TAU 72, TY DANAS WILL CONTINUE TO ACCELERATE
NORTHEASTWARD AS A STORM-FORCE BAROCLINIC LOW AND CROSS THE SEA OF
JAPAN AND THE NORTHERN TIP OF HONSHU BEFORE EXITING BACK INTO THE
PACIFIC OCEAN. INCREASING VWS AND COOLING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
WILL CAUSE ITS RAPID DETERIORATION. NUMERIC GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT
AGREEMENT WITH MINOR VARIATIONS ON THE RECURVE POINT. IN VIEW OF
THIS, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST THAT IS LAID
SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN AND JUST TO THE RIGHT OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS
AFTER TAU 24. //
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