Tropical Storm GONI Advisory Tue Aug 18

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 16W (GONI) WARNING NR 17//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TYPHOON (TY) 16W (GONI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 678 NM SOUTHEAST
OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, JAPAN HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW THINNING CONVECTIVE BANDS OVER
THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE WITH TIGHTLY-CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO A
SMALL 7 NM DIAMETER. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE
FEATURE WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 105 KNOTS IS
BASED ON CORRESPONDING DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T5.5
(102 KNOT) FROM ALL REPORTING AGENCIES. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES LOW TO MODERATE (10 TO 20 KNOT) VWS AND GOOD EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW. ADDITIONALLY, SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE
TO THE NORTH CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE SYSTEM. TY 16W CONTINUES TO
TRACK ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP STR.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TY 16W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU
72 UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR. MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS ALONG WITH CONTINUED SUBSIDENCE TO THE NORTH WILL
LIMIT THE INTENSIFICATION IN THE NEAR TERM. BY TAU 48, ENVIRONMENTAL
AND UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE, ALLOWING TY 16W
TO RE-INTENSIFY.
   C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH PASSING TO THE
NORTH WILL WEAKEN THE STR, CAUSING TY 16W TO SHIFT POLEWARD.
DEGRADED UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS AND LAND INTERACTION WILL BEGIN TO
WEAKEN THE SYSTEM. AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 72, BUT CONTINUES TO SHOW A SPREAD IN THE
LATER TAUS. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING OF THE POLEWARD
TURN, THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE LEVEL REMAINS LOW.////
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