Tropical Storm ONE Advisory Wed Jul 22

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 01C (HALOLA) WARNING NR 48//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
  TYPHOON 01C (HALOLA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 672 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST
OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A COMPACT
SYSTEM WITH TIGHTLY CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO A REFORMING EYE
FEATURE. THE 212239Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE CONFIRMS THE TIGHTLY
WRAPPED STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM WITH A MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED SATELLITE IMAGERY
WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 75 KNOTS
BASED ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES,
AND RJTD. THE 212357Z ASCAT PASS WAS A BULLS EYE AND USED TO
ESTABLISH THE WIND RADII AT THE ANALYSIS POSITION WITH GOOD
CONFIDENCE. THOUGH SURROUNDED BY SUBSIDENCE BOTH POLEWARD AND
WESTWARD OF THE SYSTEM, UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS
IN AN AREA OF LIGHT VWS WITH GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. TY 01C IS
TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP-LAYERED STR TO THE
NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TY HALOLA WILL CONTINUE TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR THROUGH TAU 48. IT IS FORECAST TO
INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS - PEAKING AT 90 KNOTS - DUE TO
CONTINUED FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WITH GOOD OUTFLOW, LOW
VWS, AND SSTS ABOVE 28 CELSIUS. BEYOND TAU 36, VWS WILL INCREASE
WHICH WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
TIGHT AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 48, LENDING TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS
PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
   C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO TURN POLEWARD
AS IT ROUNDS THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STEERING STR. TY
HALOLA SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN DUE TO VWS ABOVE 30 KNOTS CAUSED BY
STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW FROM A BUILDING MID-LATITUDE RIDGE TO THE
NORTHWEST, SSTS DROPPING BELOW 26 CELSIUS, THEN LAND INTERACTION WITH
JAPAN. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE SPREADS OUT AFTER TAU 48 DUE TO VARYING
DEGREES IN THE TIMING OF THE RE-CURVE AND CONW MEMBERS CONTINUE TO
STRUGGLE TO CONVERGE ON A SOLUTION REGARDING THE WESTERN EXTENT OF
THE STR TO THE NORTH. THIS UNCERTAINTY LEADS TO AN OVERALL LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST.//
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