Tropical Storm DOKSURI Advisory Fri Jun 29

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 07W (DOKSURI) WARNING
NR 11//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM 07W (DOKSURI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 212 NM
SOUTHEAST OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 20 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT
THE COLD DENSE OVERCAST HAS BECOME MORE ELONGATED WITH STRONG SHEAR
FROM THE NORTHEAST AND CLOUD TOPS HAVE SLIGHTLY WARMED. THE MESO-
VORTICE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE MAIN CONVECTION HAS MAINTAINED AND
BECOME INCREASINGLY DISTANT AND ELONGATED. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
BASED ON A PGTW FIX WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. IT RESIDES IN THE
NORTHEASTERN SECTOR OF THE MAIN CONVECTION, CONTINUING WITH THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST PHILOSOPHY. IT APPEARS THAT TS 07W HAS A STRONG
MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION THAT CONTINUES TO REACH DOWN AND CREATE LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTERS (LLCC) THAT HAVE MADE TS DOKSURI SO HARD
TO TRACK. THE STRONG TO MODERATE (20-30 KNOTS) SHEAR ACTING ON THE
THE SYSTEM IS THEN SEPARATING THE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION FROM THE
LLCC AND THE PROCESS OF RE-DEVELOPING A NEW LLCC CONTINUES AS
OVERSHOOTING TOPS ARE CURRENTLY FORMING NEAR THE CURRENT POSITION.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS IS BASED ON THE PGTW DVORAK
ESTIMATE OF 3.0/3.0. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS
TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE NORTH. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATES THERE IS NO POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL AND OVERALL MODERATE
EQUATORWARD EXHAUST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING.
   B. TS 07W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE FIRMLY ENTRENCHED STEERING STR AND MAKE
LANDFALL SOUTHWEST OF HONG KONG SLIGHTLY AFTER TAU 24, WHERE IT
WILL THEN DISSIPATE OVER LAND BY TAU 48. THE LANDFALL POSITION IS
IN NEAR AGREEMENT WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AS NUMERICAL MODEL
TRACKERS HAVE REMAINED TIGHTLY GROUPED. TS 07W SHOULD INTENSIFY TO
A PEAK OF 55 KNOTS AS IT TRACKS OVER FAVORABLE SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (26-28 CELSIUS) AND UNDER THE IN-PHASE UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS. NOGAPS HAS BECOME MORE INLINE WITH THE MAJORITY OF MODEL
CONSENSUS BUT GFS CONTINUES TO REMAIN THE LEFT MOST OUTLIER. THE
OFFICIAL JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON THE MODEL CONSENSUS, DUE
TO THE GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG TRACKERS, WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE.//
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