Tropical Storm HAGIBIS Advisory Sun Jun 15

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 07W (HAGIBIS) WARNING
NR 04//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM (TS) 07W (HAGIBIS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 145 NM
EAST OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) ALONG WITH
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) SHOWS TS HAGIBIS HAS
CONTINUED TO CONSOLIDATE AS BANDING HAS BECOME INCREASINGLY MORE
DEFINED DESPITE THE CONVECTION BECOMING MORE SHALLOW. THIS
CONSOLIDATION IS FURTHER SUPPORTED BY A 142100Z SSMIS 37 GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE WHICH SHOWS A WEAK BUT SYMMETRIC EYE FEATURE. THERE
IS INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION BASED ON THE TIGHTLY
WRAPPED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER SEEN IN THE MSI LOOP. THE
CURRENT INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 45 KNOTS BASED ON THE
STRUCTURE SEEN IN THE AFOREMENTIONED MICROWAVE IMAGE AS DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN LOW DUE TO THE SHALLOW NATURE OF THE
CONVECTION. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS AN UNCHANGED ENVIRONMENT AS
MODERATE (10 TO 20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR CONTINUES TO OFFSET
RECENTLY ESTABLISHED POLEWARD AND CONTINUED VIGOROUS EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW. TS 07W IS TRACKING SLOWLY NORTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR).
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TS 07W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING NORTHWARD, MAKING
LANDFALL JUST AFTER TAU 12 AND THEN SHOULD SHARPLY TURN
NORTHEASTWARD AS IT TRACKS AROUND THE STR AXIS INTO THE UPPER-LEVEL
WESTERLIES. TS 07W IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE FORECAST AS THE SYSTEM INTERACTS WITH LAND AND IS FORECAST TO
DISSIPATE OVER LAND PRIOR TO THE REMNANTS RE-EMERGING OVER THE EAST
CHINA SEA AFTER TAU 36. NUMERIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH LANDFALL WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH ONLY MINOR DIFFERENCES
AFTERWARDS IN THE TIMING OF THE NORTHEAST TURN. COAMPS-TC CONTINUES
TO BE AN OUTLIER WITH AN UNLIKELY TRACK TOWARDS NORTHERN TAIWAN. THE
JTWC FORECAST CONTINUES TO FAVOR A NORTHWARD TRACK INTO LAND AND THE
DISSIPATION SCENARIO, AS DO THE BULK OF THE DYNAMIC TRACKERS. BASED
ON THE TIGHT MODEL PACKING, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK.//
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