Tropical Storm NAKRI Advisory Sun Aug 03

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 12W (NAKRI) WARNING NR
04//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM (TS) 12W (NAKRI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 75 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF KUNSAN AB, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 10 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
(MSI) DEPICTS AN EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH
CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. A 022027Z SSMIS
MICROWAVE IMAGE ALSO REVEALS THE BULK OF THE CONVECTION LOCATED OVER
THE EASTERN QUADRANTS WRAPPING AROUND THE LARGE CIRCULATION. THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE MSI AND AFOREMENTIONED MICROWAVE
IMAGE WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS BASED
ON A WEAKENING TREND AND NEARBY SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURE (SST) VALUES ARE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE AT 25 TO 26C.
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED IN AN AREA OF
LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND GOOD OUTFLOW. TS 12W IS CURRENTLY
TRACKING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR).
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC
REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TS 12W IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN A NORTHEASTWARD TRAJECTORY AS
IT TRACKS POLEWARD OF THE STR AND INTO MIDLATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW.
THE COMBINED EFFECTS OF COOLER SST, INCREASING VWS AND LAND
INTERACTION WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN TS NAKRI AS IT APPROACHES
WESTERN COAST OF KOREAN PENINSULA. TS 12W IS FORECAST TO MAKE
LANDFALL AROUND TAU 18 AND WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY AS IT TRACKS OVER
THE ROUGH TERRAIN AND EMERGES OVER THE EAST SEA BY THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE FORECAST TRACK.//
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