Issued: 1000 Saturday 15th September 2018
Duty forecaster: David Hulse

Rain, especially for the north and west

Changeable weather prevails during the week, with a spell of very windy weather developing for northern and western areas late Monday into Monday night, a risk of gales or severe gales leading to some damage and disruption. Spells of rain, especially in northern and western areas at first and, perhaps, further south and east later in the week.

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Tuesday 18/09/18
Low pressure to the northwest of Scotland will move away north with a new, deepening low approaching Northwest Ireland later and driving frontal troughs into the west. The remnants of heavy rain and very strong, possibly damaging winds in northern and western areas on Monday night soon clear. Areas exposed to the following fresh, locally strong south or southwest winds be mostly cloudy with some rain or drizzle at times. Elsewhere, dry with spells of sunshine developing. More widespread rain moves into Ireland and Scotland overnight. Highs 15 to 19C the north and west, a warmer 22 to 25C towards the southeast.

Wednesday 19/09/18
Low pressure near to Northwest Ireland moves away northeast, driving the associated weakening cold front east across England and Wales. Rain over Scotland and Ireland will move east across England and Wales, turning light and patchy later with some parts of the east and south staying dry. Sunny intervals and showers follow, the showers most likely around the north and west of Scotland and Northern Ireland. Highs 14 to 17C in the north, up to 23 to 25C in the east and southeast.

Thursday 20/09/18
A ridge of high pressure over Southern Britain at first, with low pressure to the northwest of Scotland moving east. Low pressure and an occluding trough may track in from the west. Confidence low regarding timing and distribution of rain. Sunny intervals but with showers in the north and west of Scotland and Ireland, also perhaps some drizzle in the west of England and Wales, then rain develops more widely in the west later. Cooler and fresher generally, highs 13 to 17C, locally 19C in the southeast.

Friday 21/09/18
An occluding trough weakens and moves east across England and Wales, with a risge of high pressure building in the south, while low pressure tracks east to the north of Scotland. Rain or drizzle, becoming light and patchy, will push east across England and Wales with sunny intervals following from the west, accompanied by showers for Western Scotland and Northern Ireland. Highs 13 to 18C.

Saturday 22/09/18
An Atlantic low moves northeast, passing close to the north of Scotland, with an occluding frontal trough moving southeast. Largely dry across England and Wales with some sun, just and isolated light shower in the west. Occasional rain or drizzle over Ireland, moving on into Scotland, with rain developing more widely later and extending to Northern England and North Wales. Highs 14 to 17C in the north, a warmer 22 to 25C in the southeast.

Sunday 23/09/18
A cold front in the north, moving southeast starts to weaken quickly as high pressure starts to build. Rain over Northern England and Wales moving southeast but dying out gradually, with sunshine and showers following from the northwest. Highs 13 to 15C in the north, 19 to 21C in the south.