Tropical Storm TWENTYSIX Advisory Wed Oct 18

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 26W (TWENTYSIX)
WARNING NR 01//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 26W (TWENTYSIX), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 388 NM
SOUTHWEST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD
AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A LIMITED AREA OF CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO
A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). AN 181341Z
89GHZ MHS MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS DEEP CONVECTION MOSTLY IN THE
SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE WITH EVIDENCE OF FORMATIVE BANDING. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON MULTI AGENCY
POSITION FIXES AND EXTRAPOLATION FROM THE MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 25 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES
RANGING FROM T1.0 TO T1.5 (25 KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND KNES
RESPECTIVELY. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT THE SYSTEM IS IN
AN AREA OF LOW (5-10 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND IS
TRACKING THROUGH AND AREA OF WARM (30 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (SSTS). TD 26W HAS A WEAK EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL
AND NO POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY TRACKING TO
THE NORTHEAST ALONG A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE
SOUTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THIS IS THE INITIAL PROGNOSTIC REASONING AND SETS THE FORECAST
PHILOSOPHY FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 26W.
   B. TD 26W IS FORECAST TO TRACK EAST-NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT 48
HOURS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE. THE SYSTEM
IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL OVER THE CENTRAL PHILIPPINES SHORTLY
AFTER TAU 12, TRANSIT ACROSS THE PHILIPPINES, AND TRACK OUT INTO THE
PACIFIC OCEAN SHORTLY AFTER TAU 36. THE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY INTENSIFY
DUE TO ENHANCED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW FEEDING INTO THE CIRCULATION,
THOUGH SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION WILL BE LIMITED DUE TO THE SYSTEM
TRACKING OVER LAND. AROUND TAU 36, AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS OVER THE
EASTERN PHILIPPINES, IT WILL BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH TYPHOON 25W
(LAN), EVENTUALLY BECOMING ABSORBED BY TY 25W BY TAU 48. DYNAMIC
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN STRONG AGREEMENT LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE
JTWC TRACK FORECAST.//
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