Issued: 1000hrs Friday 17th February 2017
Duty forecaster: Garry Nicholson

Increasingly unsettled; heavy rain & gales developing

A plume of very mild air originating in the tropical mid-Atlantic will advance across the British Isles by the start of next week, bringing spring-like warmth to most regions. However, rain will be frequent in the north-west, and it will turn wet and windy for many places as the week goes on with a risk of severe gales.

For the weather for the next few days click here

Monday 20/02/17
A brisk westerly breeze affects the British Isles, and a broad warm sector resides across the country. Low cloud and occasional rain for western coasts and hills - the rain most persistent in western Scotland. Meanwhile much of southern & eastern Britain should see broken cloud and sunshine. Risk of gusty winds in the north-east. Very mild, widely 13 or 14C, but locally 15 or 16C to the lee of high ground in the east.

Tuesday 21/02/17
A mild westerly flow continues, with blustery winds, increasing to gale force in the north & north-west. Fronts will move in from the Atlantic, resulting in frequent rain across the north-west of Britain & Ireland - risk of prolonged heavy falls across the West Highlands of Scotland. Patchy rain is possible almost anywhere, but the south & east of England should stay mainly dry. Some sunshine. Staying mild, between 10 and 14C.

Wednesday 22/02/17
A deep area of low pressure passes to the north of Scotland, producing strong to gale force westerly winds for all regions of Britain and Ireland - possible severe gales for a time in the north. Timing uncertain, but a band of rain is likely to advance south-east, giving some heavy bursts for a time, but fading as it reaches the south. Squally showers follow into the north-west. Becoming cooler from the north, highs 8 to 13C.

Thursday 23/02/17
Detail and timing is uncertain, but an unsettled outlook is likely. A risk of another deep low moving in from the Atlantic, and this system may track further south across Britain, resulting in more widespread gales and heavy rain. Wettest conditions toward the north-west. Brightest in the south-east. Cooler, 7 to 11C.

Friday 24/02/17
Indications favour winds turning briefly north-west or even northerly, bringing a chilly and showery day, with possible snow in the north, chiefly over the hills. Central areas should see sunny spells, but local bands of showers may give frequent rain for some. Much cooler than early in the week, highs 5 to 9C.

Saturday 25/02/17
Pressure may well build from the west, bringing a chance of a frosty start to the weekend. Showers may continue in the east, but dry weather should extend from the west with plenty of sunshine. Cool, 6 to 8C, perhaps locally higher in the west.