Tropical Storm FUNG-WONG Advisory Tue Sep 23

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 16W (FUNG-WONG) WARNING
NR 23//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM (TS) 16W (FUNG-WONG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 165 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SHANGHAI, CHINA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 09
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY (MSI)
SHOWS SOME CONVECTION ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM, WITH
SOME WEAK BANDING ALONG ITS EASTERN SIDE. THE CURRENT POSITION
IS BASED ON MSI ANIMATION AND 230006Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE WITH
GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS IS BASED ON AN
OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM ALL
REPORTING AGENCIES AND THE SYSTEMS WEAKENING TREND, PARTIALLY DUE
TO LAND INTERACTION. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TS 16W IS
LOCATED IN AN AREA OF STRONG (25 TO 30 KNOT) WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW. FUNG-WONG IS TRACKING ALONG THE
NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE LAST PROGNOSTIC
REASONING.
   B. TS FUNG-WONG WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD
UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR AND ACCELERATING AS THE
SYSTEM IS ABSORBED IN THE WESTERLIES. THE LATEST AMSU-B (231747Z)
CROSS SECTION DEPICTS THE SYSTEM TAKING ON COLD-CORE LOW
CHARACTERISTICS. EXPECT TS 16W TO CONTINUE TO UNDERGO EXTRA-
TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND COMPLETING
ETT BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH JTWC TRACK CLOSE TO THE MULTIMODEL CONSENSUS. THERE IS OVERALL
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST.//
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