Tropical Storm SOUDELOR Advisory Fri Jul 31

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 13W (SOUDELOR) WARNING
NR 04//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM (TS) 13W (SOUDELOR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 261 NM
WEST-NORTHWEST OF ENEWETAK, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS A DEEP SMALL, CDO
FEATURE OBSCURING THE LLCC WITH GOOD, ALBEIT, SLIGHTLY FRACTURED
BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON
THE ABOVE IMAGERY AND A 302050Z SSMIS 91H IMAGE WITH LOW CONFIDENCE.
THE MICROWAVE IMAGE REINFORCES THE SUBSIDENCE SEEN IN THE MSI ON THE
NORTHWESTERN SIDE OF THE LLCC, REDUCING THE CONVECTION IN THE ENTIRE
EASTERN SECTOR OF THE SYSTEM. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS MAINTAINED AT
40 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD. UPPER-
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE VWS
OFFSET BY NEAR RADIAL OUTFLOW IN ADDITION TO A POLEWARD TAP CAUSED
BY A TUTT CELL TO THE NORTH. THE CYCLONE IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG
THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED STR.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TS 13W IS FORECAST TO TRACK GENERALLY TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR.
WHILE THE AFOREMENTIONED SUBSIDENCE ON THE NORTHWESTERN SIDE OF THE
SYSTEM MAY INHIBIT RAPID INTENSIFICATION IN THE SHORT TERM, EXPECT A
GRADUAL INCREASE IN INTENSITY THROUGH TAU 72 DUE TO GOOD POLEWARD
OUTFLOW, DECREASING VWS, AND HIGH OHC THROUGH THE NORTHERN MARIANAS
ISLAND CHAIN.
   C. IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST, THE PERSISTENT CONDUCIVE UPPER-LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT WILL CONTINUE ALLOWING A PEAK INTENSITY OF 125 KNOTS BY
TAU 96. EXPECT A SLIGHTLY MORE POLEWARD TRACK AS THE DEEP STR OVER
JAPAN TRACKS TO THE EAST BY THIS TIME. TS SOUDELOR'S GROWTH WILL BE
TEMPERED BY A DECREASE IN OHC AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS NORTH OF THE 20TH
PARALLEL, CAUSING A SLIGHT DECAY IN TS 13W�??S  INTENSITY. DYNAMIC
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT, WITH AN AVERAGE
SPREAD OF MODEL TRACKS BEYOND TAU 72. HOWEVER, DUE TO THE LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION AND ITS AFFECT ON THE PERSISTENCE
OF THE TRACK, THERE IS OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACK, WHICH IS LAID CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.//
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