Issued: Sunday 19th May 2013
Duty forecaster: Simon Keeling & Captain Bob
Weather machine plays games, but we must try to beat it!
There are times when, as a forecaster, you have to throw your hands in the air and say "I give up!".
It seems that the weather machine is playing games and the forecast for a fine week that is made one day, suddenly turns to colder and more unsettled weather with the next forecast. sunshine.
Often the most frustrating part of the forecast is that the large scale atmospheric patterns are correct. And that's pretty much the situation we find ourselves in now.
We are confident that high pressure is probably going to be north of the UK through the coming month, with low pressure to the south. However, the subtle changes that are taking place within this circulation pattern and the things that cause the problems.
Indications are for a week which will be turning ever cooler and more unsettled.
As northerly winds set in, it will be northern and eastern Scotland as well as eastern England that see the highest risk of showers and rain. Western parts of the country are likely to be better.
However, as low pressure settled in towards the weekend things could turn more unsettled through the Midlands and southern England.
Indications are still that high pressure will intensify to the north of Scotland through this week. Lower pressure is to the south of the UK, and this will be bringing a chilly week with some outbreaks of rain across more southern and eastern parts of England at times. This rain may trouble the Midlands too.
Better weather through more northern and western areas, with the best sunshine for western Scotland, northwest England and western Wales.
Cool for most in that wind which could be strong at times in the southeast.
Hints that the high slips off to the west of Scotland this week. This allows the winds to turning more into the northwest. Plenty of dry weather is likely in much of Scotland and Ireland with sunny spells, although northern Scotland could see some showers at times.
The low pressure stays to the south and again it will be southern and southeastern England that is most at risk from some rain. Staying cool with the winds mainly from the east or northeast.
The high is expected to retreat further into the Atlantic. Probably a more westerly flow through Scotland bringing some cloud and outbreaks of rain here at times. The southern half of the UK may well be drier and brighter with sunny spells.
Hints of turning more unsettled over Scotland and Ireland as well as northern England this week. More southern areas should be drier with sunny spells and staying mild too. Note that confidence is low.
Probably feeling milder too.
Simon & Capn Bob
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